Papua New Guinea: Population

Between 2000 and 2023, Papua New Guinea's estimated population rose from 5.5 million to 10.4 million. That was an absolute change of 4.9 million and 87.6%.

The 2023 estimate is the fixed baseline for this WPP 2024 analysis. Under the UN Medium projection, the population is projected at 11.3 million in 2028, 12.2 million in 2033, and 13.9 million in 2043. From the estimate baseline through the 20-year horizon, it is projected to increase by 3.5 million (33.3%).

In the latest estimate year, births numbered 255.3 thousand and deaths 67.7 thousand. Natural change was 187.6 thousand, while net migration was -787. These values are reported as demographic components and are not an explanation of the policies or events behind the series.

Age structure is also projected to shift. People aged 65 or older represented 3.3% of the 2023 estimate and are projected at 6.3% in 2043. The share aged 0-14 changes from 33.8% to 27.5% over the same comparison.

Total fertility was estimated at 3.10 births per woman in 2023, compared with 4.52 in 2000. Under the Medium projection it reaches 2.49 in 2043. Birth totals are shown separately; fertility rates and the number of births do not measure the same thing.

Life expectancy at birth increased from 61.6 years in 2000 to 66.1 years in 2023. The latest infant mortality rate was 32.2 per 1,000 live births. Crude death rates are presented with age and longevity measures rather than interpreted alone.

With 10.4 million people, Papua New Guinea ranked 93rd of 237 WPP countries and areas by population in 2023. Its regional and peer comparisons use the same release, year, and country/area eligibility rules.