Bulgaria: Population

Between 2000 and 2023, Bulgaria's estimated population fell from 8.0 million to 6.8 million. That was an absolute change of 1.2 million and 15.1%.

The 2023 estimate is the fixed baseline for this WPP 2024 analysis. Under the UN Medium projection, the population is projected at 6.6 million in 2028, 6.3 million in 2033, and 5.7 million in 2043. From the estimate baseline through the 20-year horizon, it is projected to decrease by 1.0 million (15.4%).

In the latest estimate year, births numbered 62.6 thousand and deaths 103.0 thousand. Natural change was -40.3 thousand, while net migration was 5.2 thousand. These values are reported as demographic components and are not an explanation of the policies or events behind the series.

Age structure is also projected to shift. People aged 65 or older represented 21.8% of the 2023 estimate and are projected at 27.3% in 2043. The share aged 0-14 changes from 14.5% to 13.6% over the same comparison.

Total fertility was estimated at 1.75 births per woman in 2023, compared with 1.29 in 2000. Under the Medium projection it reaches 1.71 in 2043. Birth totals are shown separately; fertility rates and the number of births do not measure the same thing.

Life expectancy at birth increased from 71.6 years in 2000 to 75.6 years in 2023. The latest infant mortality rate was 4.7 per 1,000 live births. Crude death rates are presented with age and longevity measures rather than interpreted alone.

With 6.8 million people, Bulgaria ranked 110th of 237 WPP countries and areas by population in 2023. Its regional and peer comparisons use the same release, year, and country/area eligibility rules.